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Archive for the 'business' Category

The Gamber’s Fallacy & The Hot Hand Fallacy

Tuesday, June 13th, 2017

The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand Fallacy are two poles of the same flawed paradigm. They are reverse images of the tendency for our brain to believe in a storied, or patterned, outcome. As opposed to the probabilistic reality that individual events may have zero bearing on the preceding or following events. They are human biases.

The Gambler’s Fallacy

The Gambler’s Fallacy says that the longer you sit at a slot machine or roll a dice, events with entirely unrelated outcomes, the chances of winning increase. In the classic description of the Gambler’s Fallacy the player believes that if a coin has flipped three heads, the chances are increased that on the next go it is inclined to flip a tail. It’s the idea that averages even out the odds. But, unfortunately for the gambler, each toss of a coin is entirely independent of probabilistic outcome and there is just as much a reason to expect a head or a tail at 50/50 odds after 10,000 coin flips of heads.

The number of preceding outcomes has no relationship to the next. Read the rest of this entry »

Post-Diversity & Missing the Diversity Dividend

Sunday, March 13th, 2016

In these days of ultra-right-wing politics and the proud bigotry of a rebranded National Front it shouldn’t be surprising to find business jargon like post-diversity in serious conversation. Post-diversity is the idea that we’re past diversity; that we are beyond paying attention to equality of pay, conditions and opportunity for groups perceived as disadvantaged.

What post-diversity means is that an organisation with post-diversity values will employ people who are a cultural fit. People with the same values, who look and speak the same language.

By a cultural fit they often mean – white, entitled and probably young. What cultural fit means is educated like us and thinks like us and comes from where we arose.

In everyday application, this post-diversity recruitment landscape dictates that non-normative prospective employees (ethnic, indigenous, female, or other group outside the cultural fit), with the same qualifications or greater, will be intentionally passed aside for a normative prospective employee who fits a predetermined cultural image that matches existing employee profiles.

Here’s the hard truth about post-diversity. OK, there may be a small benefit to having everyone in an organisation belong to a certain cultural fit. These employees like the same things and share common fundamental values. They go to the same church; or not. And they are cultural clones of each other. However, any small benefit of hiring to a cultural fit is so infinitesimally small that it’s hardly worth mentioning. Let’s say, at best, it’s not a direct negative if all the employees get along.

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A Gorgeous Little Startup called Naked Wines

Wednesday, January 27th, 2016

A great way to buy real Australian wine directly from real Australian small batch wine makers is through a start-up called Naked Wines. Over 49,000 people are currently crowd-funding Australian wines through Naked Wines at a commitment of $40 per month. These small scale wine buff investors are called the Angels.

The business problem Naked Wines solve is that the Australian wine industry is dominated by the two major supermarkets – Coles and Woolworth. With 77 per cent of the wine industry in those large corporate hands it is extremely difficult for small producers to compete and new entrants to produce good, authentic Australian wine. Real wine. Wine made by real wine makers in small batches.

The idea itself is simple enough: wine lovers (the Angels) commit to letting Naked Wines pull $40 each month from their bank accounts. This money accumulates in their shopping cart to be immediately available for purchasing wine. This money isn’t lost or stolen; it remains their money. The guaranteed $40 monthly cash flow from the 49,000+ Angels is used to help a select group of small wine makers purchase grapes and bring their otherwise unrealised small batch wines to market. Note that only Angels can purchase these limited edition wines.

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About the Author

Steven Clark Steven Clark - the stand up guy on this site

My name is Steven Clark (aka nortypig) and I live in Southern Tasmania. I have an MBA (Specialisation) and a Bachelor of Computing from the University of Tasmania. I'm a photographer making pictures with film. A web developer for money. A business consultant for fun. A journalist on paper. Dreams of owning the World. Idea champion. Paradox. Life partner to Megan.

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